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ILO Index Reshapes Future of Work Forecast

The May 2025 Working Paper 140 offers the most detailed map yet of AI task exposure across occupations.
This article examines the findings, policy stakes, and business actions that shape the Future of Work debate.
Moreover, it highlights emerging strategies that can protect Wages and upgrade Job Quality while narrowing Inequality.
Readers will also discover why Developing Economies face unique constraints and opportunities during this technological shift.
Meanwhile, experts stress that transformation, not destruction, is the dominant labor pattern visible in the fresh data.
Therefore, leaders must focus on task redesign, reskilling, and fair governance rather than headline-grabbing automation fears.
ILO Refines Exposure Data
Firstly, the updated index evaluates almost 30,000 tasks, far surpassing the earlier 2023 framework.
Additionally, human experts and AI systems scored each task, producing 52,558 data points mapped to global occupations.
The results show that 25% of employment holds at least some exposure to generative AI capabilities.
In contrast, only 3.3% of jobs fall into the highest exposure gradient where most tasks could automate.
- High-income exposure reaches 34% of positions, reflecting greater digital intensity.
- Female employment faces 9.6% top-gradient exposure in rich countries, triple the male share.
- Survey involved 1,640 workers across sectors, ensuring cross-validation of task scores.
Moreover, the ILO stresses transformation over elimination because most occupations mix automatable and non-automatable tasks.
These figures refine earlier estimates by clarifying where intervention should target first.
The index provides actionable granularity for policymakers and employers.
Consequently, attention can pivot from hype toward pragmatic task redesign strategies.
This pivot is crucial when examining gender and gradient disparities ahead.
Gender And Gradient Gaps
Gender disparities dominate the revised exposure gradients, and clerical roles illustrate the imbalance vividly.
Nevertheless, the ILO finds women three times more likely to sit in top-risk jobs within rich economies.
Furthermore, administrative support positions combine high automation feasibility with limited bargaining power, compounding Inequality.
In developing regions, lower digital infrastructure dampens immediate risk, yet gendered occupational segregation persists.
Consequently, missing broadband should not mask structural gaps that could explode once platforms mature.
Employers that ignore these patterns may face legal, reputational, and talent-retention costs.
Women shoulder disproportionate exposure across gradients.
Therefore, policy must embed gender lenses in every reskilling and governance program.
Next, the study’s insights on task change illuminate broader effects on Job Quality and Wages.
Implications For Job Quality
Task substitution can erode Job Quality when routine duties vanish but higher-value responsibilities stay unrewarded.
Moreover, algorithmic management may intensify monitoring, reducing autonomy and harming mental health.
Brookings researchers warn that productivity gains translate into higher Wages only if collective bargaining and profit-sharing mechanisms exist.
In contrast, unchecked adoption can hollow clerical pay scales while inflating executive bonuses, widening Inequality.
Additionally, the ILO highlights opportunities to enrich roles by combining AI outputs with human judgement, boosting creativity and satisfaction.
These design choices determine whether the Future of Work delivers shared prosperity or fragmented labour experiences.
Job transformation carries both promise and peril.
Consequently, deliberate workplace design will anchor sustainable compensation and dignified conditions.
Such design requires supportive policies, which the next section unpacks.
Policy Levers And Dialogue
Governments hold several levers to steer outcomes, yet effective action demands coordinated social dialogue.
For example, targeted upskilling funds can cushion clerical workers while accelerating digital readiness in Developing Economies.
Furthermore, labour ministries can tie tax incentives to measurable improvements in Job Quality and transparency.
Meanwhile, unions demand algorithmic audit rights, ensuring AI systems respect existing protections and fair Wages.
Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, now scenario-test employment shocks linked to varying adoption speeds.
Therefore, stakeholder alignment becomes the chief prerequisite for a stable Future of Work transition.
Policy synergy mitigates risk and amplifies benefits.
Nevertheless, implementation gaps remain wide, urging closer cross-sector collaboration.
Collaboration becomes even more urgent for Developing Economies confronting infrastructure constraints.
Impact On Developing Economies
Lower connectivity currently shields many Developing Economies from immediate displacement threats.
However, the same gap restricts access to augmentation gains, limiting productivity and upward Wages growth.
Brookings notes that capital-light service exports could flourish if broadband, skills, and governance converge.
Additionally, multinational firms may relocate cognitive tasks to cost-effective regions once digital infrastructure matures.
In contrast, fragile social protection systems magnify shocks when task redistribution eventually accelerates, deepening Inequality.
Therefore, early investment in connectivity, education, and social insurance is pivotal for equitable Future of Work outcomes.
Infrastructure today shapes opportunity tomorrow.
Consequently, strategic investment decides whether Developing Economies leapfrog or lag.
Firms operating globally must adapt their workforce plans accordingly.
Strategic Moves For Firms
Employers cannot wait for regulators; proactive design choices will set competitive direction.
Moreover, many companies are mapping tasks against the ILO gradients to prioritise augmentation pilots over layoffs.
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Additionally, management should establish clear metrics for Job Quality boosts, not only cost savings.
Nevertheless, transparent change management, continuous learning budgets, and equitable pay structures remain essential retention levers.
Consequently, firms that balance efficiency and dignity will capture durable market trust and performance gains.
Corporate action now shapes the organisational culture of tomorrow.
Therefore, early investment in people converts AI hype into sustained advantage.
The final section distills overarching insights and suggests next steps.
Conclusion And Next Steps
The ILO’s refined index moves debate from speculative headlines to actionable insight about the Future of Work.
Moreover, evidence shows that task transformation, not mass layoffs, will define the Future of Work across sectors.
However, gender gaps, uneven Wages growth, and widening Inequality remain clear risks.
Additionally, lower-income nations must build infrastructure quickly to seize their share of the Future of Work.
Therefore, coordinated policy, robust social dialogue, and continuous learning are essential pillars of a just Future of Work.
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